AI Friday

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www.aifri.day

Meeting notes
Join us on Slack

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November 209–10:30 am

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Hands up, quick. (1) Which model are you mostly using right now: Claude, ChatGPT, Gemini, Grok, Meta? (2) Personal agents: who's using Grok Bot? Muse? An OpenAI dot? Siri AI? Cue? (I'm on Muse.) (3) Who runs a WordPress site, personally or at your company? (4) Who has cancelled or downgraded a SaaS tool in the last 30–60 days because you built a replacement or AI covered part of it? Fresh options, pick one or two: (5) Who has let an agent spend money for you, actually check out? (6) Who has had an agent working while you slept, overnight run or scheduled task? (7) Who has published a website or app this month that you didn't hand-code? (8) Who has had a real-time voice conversation with an AI this month, not typing? (9) Who has caught an AI confidently telling you it did something it didn't do? (A good setup for the Astra 6.1 story.)

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OpenAI dots faces on the DevDay screen — **dots**OpenAI

Grok BotxAI

MuseMeta

Claude DuetAnthropic

InstinctStartup

OpenClaw mascot — **OpenClaw**Open source

HermesNous Research

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Personal agents: the big story of the last two months. Who is using which? (Callback to the vibe check.) dots (OpenAI): launched at DevDay Sept 29, always-on agents each with its own cloud computer and 4,000+ apps; Pro and Business Premium first. That photo is the DevDay screen. Grok Bot (xAI): beta since Aug 11, a team of always-on bots with their own computer; SuperGrok Heavy; Grok Bot Marketplace opened to plugins Oct 14 (secondary source). Muse (Meta): launched Sept 8 for US adults on iOS, Android, web and WhatsApp; free tier plus $20 and $100 plans; Muse Home Link device shipping to subscribers in October. I'm on Muse. Claude Duet (Anthropic): announced Oct 21; a separate proactive agent app for iOS, Android and claude.ai, not the earlier Cowork desktop feature. Morning briefs across connected apps, background work on its own virtual machine, and approval before sending messages, payments, signatures or deletions. Research preview by waitlist for US Pro and Max subscribers; shares Claude plan limits. Siri AI (Apple): beta since Sept 14 with iOS 27, English first, iPhone 15 Pro and later; Apple avoids the word agent, and hands-on reviews say it handles calendar, notes and reminders but not yet bigger multi-step jobs. Cue (Manus): launched Sept 28 alongside Manus 2.0, a separate app where each agent gets its own email address, phone number, wallet and computer; it can take calls and pay within a budget you set; early access, invite code. Manus is back to independent operations after Beijing blocked Meta's $2B acquisition. Instinct: invite-only startup; Noah Shinn's Concierge demo booking a restaurant by text (we showed it in #7). OpenClaw: the open-source one you run yourself, reached through chat apps. Hermes Agent (Nous Research): another open-source self-hosted agent, with persistent memory, skills and chat-app integrations; see its official repo. Also out there, not on the slide: Perplexity Comet (free agentic browser), Amazon Alexa+, Google Gemini (agent features, Gemini Skills). Sources: claude.com/resources/articles/claude-duet; github.com/NousResearch/hermes-agent; sfstandard.com/2026/09/29/openai-launches-dots/; thenextweb.com/news/meta-muse-personal-ai-agent-launch; x.ai/bot; sproutmedia.ie/insights/personal-ai-agents-compared-2026/ (comparison roundup, Oct 2026); hothardware.com/news/apple-unveils-siri-ai-wwdc-2026; implicator.ai/manus-cue-agents-phone-numbers-wallets/; siecledigital.fr (Sept 30) on Cue.

Diagram: before, one model call produces an answer; now, one model call fans out to dozens of operations such as tool calls, web fetches, database writes, payment auth, and retries

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Chart: one assignment, watch flights for two weeks and rebook if cheaper, takes 6 model calls but 336 schedule wake-ups, 1,008 tool calls, 1,344 database reads and writes, and 24 recoveries and retries

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Andrew's photo from a car window of a San Francisco billboard for fal: Your creativity layer. Build, deploy, train on fal.ai.

Andrew's selfie in front of the OpenAI DevDay 2026 sign and giant dot balloons at Fort Mason

Protesters outside DevDay with signs including OpenAI drop the ICE contract

Rows of attendees in black folding chairs, seen from behind

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San Francisco. I was out there for OpenAI DevDay (Sept 29), and two weeks ago Jim Coulter of TPG, just in from SF, did the Idea Village fireside here. Press once: the billboard. AI billboards everywhere you look in SF. This one is fal, "your creativity layer": a platform for building on image, video and audio models (fal.ai). Not a consumer brand, and it still buys billboards. That is how much money is chasing AI there right now. Press: DevDay. Selfie: OpenAI DevDay, September 29, Fort Mason (Gateway Pavilion), San Francisco. I was waitlisted, then got a surprise acceptance. The balloons are the dots, their new personal agents. Press: protesters out front (signs included "OpenAI drop the ICE contract" and "People over AI"). SF's AI backlash is real and visible. Press: the crowd, almost entirely developers. Press: Sam on stage. Announced: dots (always-on agents with their own cloud computer), GPT-6.1 Sol, ChatGPT Space, Sign in with ChatGPT, a $500 Pro tier, Codex in the cloud. No new flagship: GPT-6.1 Astra was pulled the day before over deceptive behavior (WSJ, Reuters). At the closing Q&A Sam said alignment is the top research priority. Press again to move on.

Jim Coulter of TPG speaking with Tim Williamson at Idea Village, October 16, 2026 — Drop the event photo at 8/assets/sf/idea-village.jpg

Jim CoulterTPG·Tim WilliamsonThe Nieux

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Venture capital · 2026 · Jan–Jul

$130B

Outside the US

$100B

US, outside California

$400B

$280BSan Francisco

California

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Jim Coulter (TPG) at Idea Village, Oct 16: "the mother of all cycles." The all-time venture record was 2025, and we passed it by June 2026. His breakdown, Jan–July 2026: outside the US about $130B. US outside California about $100B; New York, the number one city outside California, about $27B and dead flat for three years. California about $400B. And of that, $280B into San Francisco. "This has never happened before." Press-by-press: outside US, rest of US, California, then San Francisco rises inside California. (New York is not on the chart; mention it aloud.) HOW IT CHECKS OUT (PitchBook-NVCA Venture Monitor unless noted). Record: US venture hit $412.7B in H1 2026, already 30% above all of 2025 (~$319B) (Fortune, July 10). Globally, Crunchbase counts $510B in H1 vs $440B for all of 2025. San Francisco: SF metro raised $176.1B in Q1 (65.9% of US) plus $93.1B in Q2 = $269B in the first half (SF Examiner, Apr and July). So $280B by July is right on, though it is the SF metro, not strictly city limits. Most of it is OpenAI ($122B round, Q1) and Anthropic ($65B, May): two companies. Bay Area (SF + San Jose metros): about $221B in Q1 and $98.6B in Q2, roughly $320B H1. Jim's ~$400B California through July is plausible but on the high side; I could not find a published California total. New York: $11.1B Q1 + $11.7B Q2 = $22.8B H1 (on pace for his $27B by July); $28.5B in all of 2024 (NY State Comptroller) and about $28B in 2025, so flat holds. NY's Q1 share of US dollars (4%) was its smallest in at least 12 years. Outside the US: Crunchbase H1 shares imply about $120B non-US in the first half, consistent with $130B by July. US outside California is the least-checkable number: US total minus a California estimate lands around $70–100B. Figures are Jim's, rounded, as spoken; treat them as a speaker's numbers, which the published data broadly backs.

Venture capital · San Francisco metro

$25B

2015

$24B

2016

$24B

2017

$50B

2018

$40B

2019

$44B

2020

$92B

2021

$56B

2022

$46B

2023

$62B

2024

$136B

2025

$280B

2026Jan–Jul

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San Francisco, compared with itself. Plays on arrival: 2026, $280B in seven months, then it walks backwards in time, right to left: 2025, $136B, the record year everyone called insane; then 2024 back to 2015, when SF startups raised $20–60B a year, with the 2021 bubble peak at $92B. 2026 is double the record year with five months to go. Sources: NVCA 2026 Yearbook (PitchBook data), "US VC Deal Flow by MSA ($M)", San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont MSA: 2015 $25.2B, 2016 $23.5B, 2017 $23.5B, 2018 $49.5B, 2019 $40.4B, 2020 $44.4B, 2021 $91.8B, 2022 $55.5B, 2023 $46.5B, 2024 $61.7B, 2025 $135.9B (nvca.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/2026-YB-Public-PDF.pdf). 2026: $280B is Jim Coulter's Jan–Jul figure; PitchBook-NVCA has the SF metro at $269B for H1 alone ($176.1B Q1 + $93.1B Q2, SF Examiner). PitchBook revises figures between editions (SF Examiner reported 2025 as $152.5B in January), so treat bars as approximate. The SF metro is the city plus Oakland and the East Bay; it excludes San Jose and Silicon Valley.

Redfin listing for 160 Noe St, San Francisco: sold July 16, 2026 for $3,200,000, 3 beds, 2 baths, 2,495 square feet

About this home: Anthropic or OpenAI stock will be considered as payments. Nestled in the heart of Duboce Triangle

The first sentence highlighted: Anthropic or OpenAI stock will be considered as payments.

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Transition: "And all of this money in SF is doing crazy things." Everyone has heard about SF real estate prices, but look at this listing. 160 Noe St, Duboce Triangle: a 3-bed, 2-bath top-floor unit. Plays on arrival: the description slides in, then its very first line lights up: "Anthropic or OpenAI stock will be considered as payments." Facts (Redfin, MLS #426133204): listed May 28, 2026 at $2,995,000; pending June 11; sold July 16, 2026 for $3,200,000, about 7% over asking. The building last sold in March 2024 for $2,126,000 as a vacant duplex. Listing agent Rachel Swann, Coldwell Banker. We don't know whether the buyer actually paid in stock; the listing only said it would be considered. Jim Coulter told the same kind of story at Idea Village: a Mill Valley house listed at $13M sold around $18M and would only take Anthropic or OpenAI stock. That one is his anecdote; this one is a public listing. Source: redfin.com/CA/San-Francisco/160-162-Noe-St-94114/home/193405322 (captured Oct 21, 2026; the highlight is added for the slide).

One-year chart: the CardTrack 100 Pokémon card index rises about 55 percent, far above the Nasdaq, S&P 500, house prices, gold and Bitcoin — Source: CardTrack, Oct 21, 2026 · CC-BY 4.0

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It's not just houses. Rich people are hedging: Jim Coulter said people who made money in AI are moving cash into things AI can't break, like sports teams and live events. Collectibles too. The blue line is the CardTrack 100, the 100 most valuable Pokémon cards as one index. Over the last year (Nov 2025 to Oct 21, 2026): Pokémon cards +55.5%; Nasdaq +17.1%; S&P 500 +14.1%; US house prices +2.9%; consumer prices +2.8%; gold -1.1%; Bitcoin -7.2%. Since Sept 2021 the index is +156%, ahead of gold (+139%), Bitcoin (+92%) and the S&P (+81%). Max drawdown over the year only -5%. Pikachu is official artwork from pokemon.com. Source: CardTrack, "Pokémon cards vs Bitcoin, gold, stocks and inflation," updated Oct 21, 2026, cardtrack.com/data/pokemon-vs-assets (CC-BY 4.0; chart reproduced with attribution). Card prices are sale-based and thin markets; not investment advice.

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Paraphrase of Jim Coulter's closing advice at Idea Village (say it in your words; the event was billed as not recorded): Tim asked what one move people should make in the next 90 days. Jim: ramp up your curiosity, and do it together. New Orleans does things as crews. Learning AI alone is like coding alone; it works better as a cohort where people trade what they're seeing. He suggested an adult course on AI, maybe two professors who are close to it. His example: the CEO of Temasek, Singapore's state investment firm, brought his top 60 executives to San Francisco for a week and had Stanford run a class, so the whole leadership team had a common language. And the thing SF has that we don't: the coffee shop where everyone is comparing notes ("what are you seeing, what am I seeing, I don't know"). His line to close: AI needs to land and expand in New Orleans. Don't let it land as raindrops; bring it in as a flood. Your bridge: that coffee shop is this room. Now the ask: how do we take the energy in this room and make it a flood in 2027? How do we reach people who would never come to a meetup like this? Seed ideas if the room is quiet: bring one person next month who has never been; an AI 101 cohort (Jim's adult course) with Idea Village or a university; industry nights (restaurants, law, healthcare); show up at NOEW 2027 as AI Friday; post what you build in the Slack. On screen: New Orleans at night. It starts with one light, here at RentCheck on Magazine St, and spreads block by block until the whole city is lit (about 20 seconds). Let it run while you talk. Map: street intersections from OpenStreetMap (© OpenStreetMap contributors).

Replacing WordPressTaking on ambitious projects
Show & tell
AI Fridaymaxxing with Max

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Show & tell

10–15 minutes
Why?What were you trying to do?
Brief demoDon’t feature-blast
How?Process, tools, prompts, workflows, models
Leave timefor discussion and questions

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AI Friday

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